February 2013 S&P 500 Forecast Results

Financial Place Online provided a market forecast back in December.  The forecast was for the S&P 500 index to be above 1400 by 1 February 2013.  The good news is that this forecast came to be true.  The great news is that the S&P 500 is currently at 1513!   The primary concern though, is that the upward run has come too fast.  Very little of the underlying U.S. economy has changed in the last year.  The job market has modestly improved, but this is more than offset by fiscal uncertainty that may result in disaster coupled with a monetary policy that maintains the suppression of interest rates.

The 52 Week low for the S&P 500 was 1266.  Also, the index is up 100 points in the last month.  The price to earnings ratio (P/E) is a little above 17.  It is worth noting that the P/E ratio correlation to the stock market is weak as earnings growth is another factor which weighs heavily on the price of the index.  Forecasts for 2013 earnings growth are estimated to be anywhere from flat to 3%, hardly anything worth writing home about.

What may really be the cause of the run to over 1500, is the present 2.07% dividend yield.  Those who were invested in bonds found the S&P 500 dividend rate to be attractive since bond yields are low and interest rate risk is increasing.

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About Steve @ FPO
Hello FPO readers, I have been writing on financial topics for about 12 years now, but I have only recently reignited the fire of publishing online. I have to say, its good to be back. I am an electrical engineer by trade who enjoys all topics engineering and financial. I started Financial Place Online (FPO) to create a value added financial news and education website that would provide a refreshing daily financial read. Financial Place Online websites are built around the principles of consumer empowerment, leveling the playing field, zero spam tolerance, and none of those annoying sidebar or banner ads. For us, it's all about enjoying a good read.

One Response to February 2013 S&P 500 Forecast Results

  1. Congrats on correctly predicting the market! That’s not an easy thing to do.

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